The Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet) on Tuesday predicted an early onset of rainfall in sixteen Nigerian States of Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba.
It, however, added that a late onset is expected over Borno State.
NiMet gave the hint at its public presentation of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) event held in Abuja.
Highlighting the 2026 SCP, the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo said that the scientific robustness of the document ensures that the SCP remains a trusted national reference document, supporting policy formulation, investment planning, and risk management at all levels of government and the private sector.
He said the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction is built on global best practices of meteorology and climate science, combining weather with long‑term climatological data and climatic drivers.
Key global climate drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), he said, were used in the production of this year’s SCP.
“For 2026, these indicators point to a predominantly neutral ENSO phase, with important implications for rainfall distribution, temperature,” the minister noted.
He stressed that the country has already seen some significant rains across the southern parts of the country this year.
Keyamo added: “Let me reiterate that these should not be taken to mean that the rainy season has started in these places.
“Those engaged in rainfed agriculture and other rainfall-dependent activities in Nigeria are therefore advised to refer to the predicted onset dates in this publication or consult NiMet for proper guidance.
“Early onset is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba States. While a late onset is expected over Borno State.
“Rainfall cessation is anticipated to be earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger States. However, a delayed end of season is expected in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna States.”
Keyamo further explained that a longer-than-normal length of rainy season is expected in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba States.
Whereas, parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger States are expected to have a shorter-than-normal length of rainy season.
He maintained that a normal annual rainfall amount is anticipated in most parts of Nigeria compared to the long-term average as above-normal rainfall is expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States, and the Federal Capital Territory.
The minister noted that in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States, below-normal rainfall is expected.
During the season of March to May, Keyamo said that a severe dry spells exceeding 15 days are likely in parts of Oyo and Ogun States, while moderate dry spells are expected over Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, and Delta states, as well as parts of Kogi and Kwara states.
Continuing, he emphasised that during the June-July-August season, a severe dry spell that may last up to 21 days is predicted for parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara states.
“The Little Dry Season (LDS), also known as ‘August Break,’ is predicted to begin by late July and would be severe and prolonged over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo States. The number of days with little or no rainfall will range between 28 and 40 days.
“A moderate LDS effect is expected over Ondo, parts of Kwara and Edo States. Both daytime and nighttime temperatures are predicted to be warmer than the long-term average over most parts of the country in January, February, March, and May 2026.”