Dear Egbon Dele Momodu,
I read your open letter to President Bola Tinubu, in which you said, “Our economy has virtually collapsed”, among other things. Respectfully, the facts do not support your assertions, and in your open letter, you did not provide any facts. Only opinions. So, please let me present some facts that contradict your opinions.
Firstly, only yesterday, the International Monetary Fund projected that due to the reforms being undertaken by the current administration, Nigeria will have a 3.1% GDP growth rate in 2024. This is one of the best projections for an African country in 2024, and does not signal an economy that has ‘virtually collapsed.’
Secondly, Nigeria had a record high of ₦6.52 trillion trade surplus in the first quarter of 2024. This has never happened before. We routinely had trade deficits in the past. This means that because of the monetary reforms by the current government, Nigeria is now exporting significantly more than it is importing, and the growth is largely in the non-oil sector.
For example, Nigeria is now a net exporter of clement to Europe and a growing exporter of refined petroleum products to Europe and West African states. Ghana, a fellow petroleum exporting country, is largely dependent on LPG from Nigeria. This projects growth, not collapse.
Thirdly, in terms of revenue, all Nigerian states, bar none, have received significantly higher federal allocations since May 29, 2023, than they were receiving under the Buhari regime. Each state now gets at least 45% more federal allocation, with Nasarawa getting almost 100% more and Anambra getting 70% more, whereas their wage bill has not increased.
The above projects economic strength rather than collapse.
Fourthly, according to Financial Derivatives (FDC), with a Return on Investment of 22.90%, Nigeria’s Stock Exchange is now the most profitable capital market on Earth, bar none. Please note that. Bar none. The National Bureau of Statistics has also corroborated this. For the first time in our history, the all-share index (ASI) of the Nigerian Stock Exchange crossed the 100,000 mark in 2024.
I would not categorise such growth as collapse, and I am sure investors who smiled to the bank would not either.
Fifthly, capital inflow into Nigeria increased by 66.27% this year. This is probably why Fitch and S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s economy to a Stable B, and why foreign inflows into the capital market jumped fivefold in the first quarter of 2024 to N93.37 billion from N18.12 billion in the same period last year.
Sixthly, despite clearing the backlog of foreign exchange debts owed to foreign airlines and other foreign investors by the Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigeria’s foreign reserve hit a year-to-date high of an estimated $34 billion this year. How can a nation with such a healthy reserve be said to be on the verge of economic collapse?
Finally, the Student Loan promised is now a reality and is being disbursed. That means Nigeria is about to witness a dramatic increase in its human resources, as more youths will have access to education.
Therefore, bearing the above in mind, is it not possible, egbon Dele, that you may have focused too much on assumption and too little on facts to come to your conclusion that Nigeria’s economy is collapsing?
Reno Omokri
Gospeller. Deep Thinker. #TableShaker. Ruffler of the Feathers of Obidents. #1 Bestselling author of Facts Versus Fiction: The True Story of the Jonathan Years. Hodophile. Hollywood Magazine Humanitarian of the Year, 2019. Business Insider Influencer of the Year 2022.